Thursday, 3 March 2011

Skiing in Afghanistan

In 1976 when I first worked in Afghanistan, and again from 1993-96 when I l,ived permanently for three years, I got to trek, climb and ski extensively in the Hindu Kush. In 1997 I tried to persuade my good friends Murray and Pat Reedy, to run trips to Afghanistan as I said it contained some of the best skiing, trekking and climbing in the world. Murray and Pat run trips to the Silk Route region: http://www.silkroad.co.nz/. Today, commercial skiing in Afghanistan may soon be a possibility. Let me tell you the story.

Mette-Sophie, a Norwegian aid worker accompanied me on one trip in January 1996 into the Hindu Kush. She was on cross country skiis and I used traditional skii's with touring bindings. Photo: Bob McKerrow

No foreigners had climbed in Afghanistan since the Soviets arrived in late 1978. I had heard about the passes and valleys strewn with land mines so it was with some trepidation I embarked from Kabul in October 1994 on what was probably the first expedition into the Hindu Kush for at least 17 years. I travelled with two British climbers, Ian Clarke and John Tinker, to the Chamar valley for an attempt on Mir Samir, a peak made famous by Eric Newby in his book, A Short Walk in the Hindu Kush.


John Tinker (right) and I at on one of our camps in the Chamar valley on the way to Mir Samir. Photo: Ian Clarke


Tinker was fresh off an ascent of Everest by a new route on the north side and Clarke was head of a British Mine clearance organisation (Halo trust) in Afghanistan and was a necessary companion as the area had received large amounts of small scatterable mines, dropped from Soviet aircrafts to prevent the freedom fighters crossing the mountain passes. Our safety was dependent on his knowledge of mines and where battles had taken place. Tinker and Clarke attempted an unclimbed face on Mir Samir and got surprising high considering the unseasonably soft snow that had fallen. While the others were attempting Mir Samir, I climbed an unnamed peak around 5000 metres and looked over to the enticing mountains of Nuristan, formerly Kafirstan. As I sat on this probably unclimbed, and unnamed peak, I thought to myself " this is skiing country and what huge ptential."
. It was this trip with Clarke and Tinker that gave me the confidence to venture out on further climbing and skiing trips.

On skiis in the Hindu Kush, near the Salang Pass. Photo: Bob McKerrow

From 1993-96 when I lived in Kabul, on Friday, the only day off during the week, it was possible to climb among the various 4000 metres peaks in the Paghman range from where you get spectacular views of the Hindu Kush and Hazarajat area. Climbing 4000 metre peaks in a day made living in Kabul a joy. Also for the enthusiastic skier, a two hour drive takes you to the Salang Pass at 3,878 metres an excellent ski-mountaineering area. My good friend Ian Clarke the mine clearance expert gave  the opinion that when the area is likely to have land-mines, if it is covered with snow, and you are on skis, it is almost impossible to trigger of a mine as the body-weight is evenly distributed. Clarke did a lot of telemark skiing in the area between 1993 and 1995 in the Salang Pass are before taking up a ski-instructors job at Cadrona, near Wanaka, for the New Zealand winter of 1995.


So in 1995, I started skiiing in the Hindu Kush, not far from the Salang Pass, which was an hour and a half from Kabul. Above on skiis with the mighty Hindu Kush behind me. Photo: Bob McKerrow

Mette-Sphie on her cross country skiis in the Hindu Kush. Photo: Bob McKerrow

Good snow conditions and a wonderful mountain backdrop, the mighty Hindu Kush: Photo: Bob McKerrow

Mette Sophie skiing down from the Salang Pass. January 1996. Photo: Bob McKerrow


The author, Bob McKerrow, skiing near the Salang Pass. Photo: Bob McKerrow

Last week I came across this article in the Guardian written by Jon Boone guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 27 April 2010 and I was delighted that commercial skiing may soon become possible in the Hindu Kush at Bamiyan.

The Bamiyan valley offers 'challenging skiing' reckons its first ski tourist after some hairy moments involving avalanches. Photograph: Chad Dear

In a classroom just a few hundred metres from the towering niche that once housed a giant Buddha statue, someone has pinned up a poster detailing the attributes of a good ski guide: optimistic, articulate, patient, reliable, active, cheerful, punctual and extroverted.

Sitting around a table in the middle of the room, the 10 young men who hope to become Afghanistan's first ski guides are being taught how to avoid avalanches, and the importance of taking enough food and water on trips up the snow-capped mountains that loom over the town of Bamiyan.

They have all the poster's key attributes in spades. Indeed, it's hard to think of a more agreeable bunch of enthusiastic young men, who chatter in excellent English. The only problem is the one characteristic they all lack: the ability to ski.

Last week, they had their first taste of the rapidly melting spring snow, out on the slopes of the stunning Koh-e-Baba mountain range. Their motley collection of borrowed and secondhand skis had been carted up the lush valley on the back of a donkey. The rookie skiers had ignored the classroom guidance to layer up, and hit the slopes wearing jeans and fake designer tops. Soon they were shivering.

They had just half a dozen pairs of skis, two pairs of which were borrowed from an American couple, Chad Dear and Laurie Ashley, ski consultants who believe central Afghanistan has some of the best "outback skiing" in the world. The shortage of equipment is a problem, and the mix of Telemark and alpine skis had been partly supplemented by a few pairs of "bazaar skis", lethal wooden planks knocked up by enthusiastic local carpenters. With the bindings little more than a few leather straps and the undersurface wrapped with metal, the overall effect is terrifying, as I discovered when I tried them.
"Jon, you've never done this either!" was the crushing verdict of Abdullah Mahmood, a 25-year-old novice skier, after he had watched me flounder around for a traumatic 10 minutes during which I wondered whether, despite decades of skiing experience, the sport was finally about to claim a broken leg from me.

These are the deeply humble beginnings out of which Bamiyan, an overished but heart-stoppingly beautiful province, hopes to develop a robust ski industry. There is serious weight behind the plan to encourage winter "ecotourism" here, including the province's governor, the Aga Khan Development Network and the New Zealand government (the country has troops in the province).

Dear, a development worker from Montana, says that in a few years' time Bamiyan could boast ski-rental businesses (which will probably rely, at least to start with, on the charity of the big ski manufacturers), a nursery slope with a simple tow-lift to drag beginners to the top, and maybe even some heliskiing. To start with, it is hoped that a mix of Afghans and foreigners working in Kabul will help pump-prime a ski industry, after which Bamiyan will be ready for the world. "We hope that people in Europe and the US will put it on their five-year wish list," Dear says.

He and Ashley are currently spending several days a week exploring Bamiyan's unskied peaks, with the aim of publishing a guidebook later in the year giving adventure skiers some basic information on what the Koh-e-Baba range has to offer. And while it would be easy to be cynical about trying to establish skiing in a war zone, after spending a few days with Dear, Ashley and the would-be ski guides, I am soon swept up in their enthusiasm.

For a particular type of tourist, Bamiyan is quite a draw. But it will never appeal to those who like the chairlifts, restaurants and creature comforts of a European or American mega-resort. In Bamiyan, if you want to get to the top of slope you have to propel yourself, using Telemark skis where the ankle is free to move up and down and synthetic skins are attached to the bottom. It's the sort of old-school skiing that would have been familiar to skiers in the Alps in the 1950s: a day of gruelling ascent for perhaps just one or two runs back down to the bottom. But it's worth it, says Dear: "The terrain here is just fantastic in so many ways, and we have only been exploring the eight valleys that are closest to Bamiyan centre. There are literally thousands of opportunities for beginners and experts."

Dear thinks many tourists will elect to stay above the snowline for days, skiing over huge areas, overnighting in shelters used by farmers in the summer that could be converted into winter refuges. And it's a fair bet that Bamiyan's apres-ski scene will never boast beery Brits, downing glühwein at the bottom of the chairlifts as the sun sets over the mountains. Instead it's chai, and maybe some rice, naan and greasy meat on the roof of a farmer's house.

What Dear calls the "apres-tea" experience would be worth a holiday in itself. First of all, the scenery is extraordinary. Below the snowy peaks, farmers living in mud houses busily plough their fields with ox teams. The sense of time travel is only broken with the occasional sighting of a satellite dish, a sign that, after years of neglect, things are starting to pick up here. And that is the other benefit of skiing in Bamiyan – contributing much-needed cash to subsistence farmers in the high, isolated valleys of a poor and neglected province that could use all the help it can get. Not only were the famous giant Buddhas blown up by the Taliban in 2001; the fundamentalist militia was also responsible for massacres of the largely Hazara population (Afghanistan's most put-upon ethnic group).

Today Bamiyan is an island of security in a country where insurgency has spread like a virus, and the valley is Afghanistan's main (or rather, only) tourist attraction. Visitors don't come simply for the World Heritage site where the Buddhas used to stand, but also the lakes and extraordinary natural dams of Band-e-Amir. The young men who aspire to be ski guides already try to make ends meet by showing tourists the main sites in the summer.

But despite Bamiyan's considerable charms, the summer tourism market does not add up to much: last year its historic sites were visited by 1,560 Afghans and 756 foreigners (slightly down on 2008, probably because of disruption caused by last year's presidential election). Even those low numbers generates around $250,000 a year in the three hotels the tourist authorities have information on.

But Amir Foladi, manager of the Bamiyan ecotourism programme, wants to see that increase. He hopes that by 2015 the 116 hotel beds currently available will have increased to 1,000, creating at least 1,000 jobs. He expects 10,000 foreign visitors and 100,000 Afghans to come each year, generating around $5m for the valley, excluding income from drivers, restaurants and handicraft shops.

That's big money for Bamiyan, and it would make tourism its third major source of income, behind agriculture and mining. "It's all about getting Bamiyan ready, helping hotel owners improve their facilities, so that when we are ready to receive more tourists it will be the people of Bamiyan who benefit and not outsiders," says Foladi.
And the wind is in Bamiyan's sails, with various plans to make the valley more accessible. Currently there are two main land routes from Kabul: the slow but safe road via the Sibher Pass, which despite being only 200km [124 miles] takes a gruelling eight hours, or the relatively fast but potentially lethal four-hour road trip through Taliban territory to the south.
The Sibher Pass route, which takes travellers through some unforgettable landscapes, is currently being flattened and widened by hundreds of workers, most of whom were last week inexplicably wearing fluorescent orange Royal Mail jackets. When the road is finished and covered with asphalt, the whole journey should take less than four hours – a much more attractive proposition for weekenders from Kabul who want a few days' skiing.

The country's airlines are being lobbied to start commercial flights, which may one day land at a new airport out of town. That will replace the current dirt airstrip – among the hazards of flying into Bamiyan is livestock wandering on to the runway.

And it's just possible that Bamiyan may get its Buddhas back – although this is currently the subject of a debate among conservationists, over whether the statues should be pieced back together from recovered fragments, or rebuilt afresh. Foladi says he favours the reconstruction of one Buddha, leaving one empty niche as a permanent reminder of unhappier times.

But will Bamiyan ever become more than a summer destination, even with these improvements? Ken Adams, Bamiyan's first ever ski tourist, thinks so. A former ski industry worker in the French Alps, he is now a project manager for an NGO in Kabul. Paying just $30 a night for a hotel room, he skied for seven days in Bamiyan this spring. Despite some hairy moments involving avalanches, he reckons Bamiyan is the place for anyone who wants "some pretty challenging skiing".

"For everyone else, there is just the sheer amount of snow and a season that in a normal year should continue until late May or early June," he says.

The big unknown is whether Afghans will take up skiing in any numbers. Dear and Ashley say the locals, who are already fond of sledding on homemade yakhmolaks and other winter games, have been enthusiastic. With everything under snow for five months of the year, they could certainly do with more winter distractions, says Foladi.

And skiing is not totally unknown in Afghanistan. Afghans got involved in the sport back in the 1960s and 70s, when it was last popularised by foreigners. In those days Kabul's diplomatic classes headed for the slopes at weekends at a mini-resort close to the capital. The piste even had its own basic rope-tow and was serviced by restaurants, tea shops and even a sunbathing area for the foreigners. Various ski clubs, including one run by the ministry of education and another by Kabul University, raced against each other. With the Soviet invasion of 1979, and the national resistance that rose up to fight it, the area was soon seeded with landmines and became unusable.

Mohammad Yousuf Kargar first encountered skiing as a young boy when he saw a German employee of Siemens throwing himself down a hill in Kabul. He has kept the sport going, at least within his own family. Now the national football team coach, Kargar tested the slopes of Bamiyan for the first time this winter. But he believes Bamiyan is still too far away from Kabul to be the focus of a skiing rebirth. Instead he takes his family to the Salang, a mountain pass north of Kabul. "The government really needs to take a strong decision to redevelop the old piste outside Kabul," he says. "In the meantime I am taking my family in the Salang because I don't want this sport to die in Afghanistan."

Even though Bamiyan is so untouched by violence that it feels like another country, Dear's hope that it might be ready for foreign visitors in five years seems optimistic at a time when the Taliban insurgency continues to strengthen.

Around the time I was embarrassing myself on the wooden skis, Kandahar city was rocked by a massive vehicle bomb parked outside a hotel. I was blissfully unaware of another terrible day in Afghanistan's second city as we trudged down muddy fields towards our apres-ski lunch. Later that day, a compound housing foreign contractors was attacked by an even bigger bomb.

Adams wonders whether it might be possible to fly into Kabul airport and then transfer directly on to a Bamiyan flight – essentially isolating the province from the rest of the country as far as foreign tourists are concerned. But, as Dear says, Bamiyan can only remain a bubble for so long. "You've just got to have hope that things are going to get better in Afghanistan. If the country goes down, Bamiyan will go with it."

Tuesday, 1 March 2011

Why did the Christchurch earthqauke occur ?

Although I am working overseas for the Red Cross I have a house in Christchurch in which my daughter lives, and I call Christchurch  my 'home town'. My heart and prayers go out to the people in Christchurch who are having a really tough time after two major earthquakes and so many aftershocks..

I am not a scientist but I trained as a seismological technician and wintered in over in Antarctica  in 1970 at Vanda Station recording earthquakes on a 24 hour basis for 12 months.  So I picked up quite a knowledge on earthquakes and I had the honour to work with famous seismologists such as George Eiby, Robin Adams,  Frank Evison, Rex Orr and geologists such as Trevor Hatherston before my departure for Antarctica. And also to Ray Maunder, a seismological technician who taught me so much.

I am currently reading articles on why this earthquake happened and I find these words sent to me the other day by Gary Lewis who wintered over with me in Antarctica as a senior science technician, very interesting. This is what Gary Lewis said

"My own view is that because some parts of Christchurch are on a thin pan, we should not rebuild in all cases. It might be better to compensate the owners and dedicate those parts to market gardens, which could be an acceptable blend of rural and urban spaces.


I remember the words of an old deceased DSIR mate, Harvey Cummack, a physicist, who always maintained that Chch was like a bowl of instant pudding with a coin floating on the surface.
When the bowl shakes, the coin sinks to the bottom.


Because there is no such thing as bedrock down there, the building piles are only set into soft wet stuff – scary.


Sadly, I don’t think it is over yet, and could turn very ugly. The thin pan is now cracked all over the place with the remaining coins on the pudding looking rather fragile."



John Clague, Canada Research Chair in Natural Hazards Research, Simon Fraser University answered these qusetions:

Why was the damage so extensive?
The main reason is that the epicentre was only about 5 km from the city centre. Even a magnitude-6.3 earthquake, which seismologists consider "moderate", will cause major damage if its epicentre is that close to a major urban area. In addition, the earthquake was shallow - about 5 km deep; again the seismic energy swept through Christchurch with little attenuation.

Many of the buildings in Christchurch are old and made of brick. These buildings are vulnerable to the strong shaking of an earthquake of this magnitude. The damage to buildings in the city was highly variable - some collapsed during the shaking; others were so severely damaged that they will have to be demolished as soon as possible; other buildings can be repaired; and others suffered little damage. Some buildings may have been weakened by the September 2010 earthquake and failed during the earthquake yesterday.

I find it interesting that some newer buildings in Christchurch were severely damaged. New Zealand's building code has earthquake provisions equal to those of any country. I’m not sure what went wrong; damage to modern buildings could be because of liquefaction. Liquefaction is a huge problem in Christchurch because the city is built on an alluvial plain, on sediments that is vulnerable to liquefaction. When shaken, these sediments transform into a liquid, causing irregular settlement of the ground, which is extremely damaging to buildings and buried structures, like water lines.

Was this related to the previous quake?

The New Zealand quake appears to be related to a system of faults that was implicated in the earlier earthquake. It's a minor fault, not main active faults that run the length of the South Island farther west. The faults that produced the September earthquake wasn't even known until the earthquake occurred. Yesterday's earthquake can be considered a large aftershock of the September event; we’re going to see a lot of aftershocks, hopefully smaller, in the days and weeks to come.

Something seismologists wrestle with is whether a large earthquake like this can set the stage for future ones? The September quake released strain on one fault, but perhaps it loaded stress on the ends of that fault or another nearby fault. Whether one calls the second quake an aftershock and a mainshock is a bit fuzzy.

What’s next?

Officials will have to do an inventory of damage to the building stock. They will declare some buildings a 'write-off', to be torn down as soon as possible, probably in about a week or so, because they will be vulnerable to collapse during aftershocks. Structural and civil engineers will examine the buildings for signs of damage that might not be obvious to the untrained eye, like cracking of key structural elements. Other buildings will have to be repaired before they can be occupied, and still others will be declared safe for immediate occupation.

Mike posted these comments on my blog which I add here:

The quake was a "strike-slip event with oblique motion" - mostly horizontal movement with some vertical movement - with reverse thrust (ie. vertical movement upwards). The vertical acceleration was far greater than the horizontal acceleration. The intensity felt in Christchurch was MM VIII. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) in the Christchurch area exceeded 1.8g (i.e. 1.8 times the acceleration of gravity), with the highest recording 2.2g, at Heathcote Valley Primary School, a shaking intensity equivalent to MM X+. This is the highest PGA ever recorded in New Zealand; the highest reading during the September 2010 event was 1.26g, recorded near Darfield. The PGA is also one of the greatest ever recorded in the world, and was unusually high for a 6.3 quake.


In contrast, the 7.0 Mw 2010 Haiti earthquake had an estimated PGA of 0.5g. The acceleration occurred mainly in a vertical direction, with eyewitness accounts of people being tossed into the air. The force of the quake was "statistically unlikely" to occur more than once in 1000 years, according to one seismic engineer, with a PGA greater than many modern buildings were designed to withstand. By comparison, the 2010 quake - in which damage was predominately to pre-1970s buildings - exerted 65% of the design loading on buildings. The acceleration experienced in February 2011 would "totally flatten" most world cities, causing massive loss of life; in Christchurch, New Zealand's stringent building codes limited the disaster.

The loss of life and property and ongoing extreme stress for so many people is tragic, but I do think it's a testament to New Zealand's building codes that so many structures remained standing long enough for people to get out alive. It could have been far worse.

Professor John Wilson is Chair of the Australian Earthquake Loading Standard and Deputy Dean of Engineering at Swinburne University of Technology had this to say:

“This quake was pretty much a bullseye - it was quite a large Mn 6.3 event and so close to Christchurch that we weren’t surprised to see significant damage; at that close range, the level of shaking is quite severe. We expected the older buildings with unreinforced masonry to suffer - their masonry is heavy, brittle and vulnerable to earthquake shaking. In general the contemporary buildings performed well, although a few contemporary buildings have collapsed which did surprise us. New Zealand has very good loading standards and a strict regulatory environment and since the mid-70s onwards the buildings have been designed for earthquake resistance very well. What’s more, the standard of design has still been improving over the last 20 years or so - which is why most buildings performed well, with the exception of a few buildings that were severely damaged or partially collapsed. The immediate challenge is to allow the Urban Search and Rescue (USAR) teams to respond and rescue in what is a very hazardous environment with continuing aftershocks.

It is definitely possible to make earthquake-proof buildings nowadays. The most elegant approach is to use ‘base isolation’ - basically you found the building on springs and de-couple it from the ground. It adds about five per cent to the building cost but makes it totally secure. The design has been around for about 30 years, though really became more common about 15 years ago. It’s widely used in California and Japan, which see so many earthquakes, but is also used in Wellington for buildings like their large museum.”

Anonympus posted this rathet interesting piece:

I think that there is not enough people in Christchurch to make a proper assessment of building collapse who are competent.


The CTV building was built to a BI model but the structure was not able to withstand rotational torque stress and suffered a punch through failure.

If the structural corners had be braced it would have withstood this.

If you tested the CTV building construction profile on a shake-table test environment, you would have discovered these weaknesses.

I have studied the constructive methods in Christchurch as I live here quite a lot and they are sadly lacking in vision and modern construction practices.Most architects and engineers are using outdated methodologies and practices.

Building a suburban home without reinforcing the slab and footings and less that 400mm in thickness is just insane and I have visited hundreds of homes and seen the poor construction methods employed.Yet these people still get paid $400 an hour to design these buildings.

And added later:

AS 1170.4 is the building code that Christchurch needs to utilise.


Australia is far more realistic in its building codes and disallows "shortcuts" I have seen done in NZ.

In rebuilding damaged heritage structures all internal walls and externals need to have their double cavity structures braced with steel fingers between the courses that tie them to eachother to give flexibility and stress relieve from the surface waves that enter a structure.The absorption and dispersal of wave energy is paramount to its survivability.

I have built heritage walls and houses and reused site materials(deconstructed the structures with a deconstruction crew) to keep the historical significance of the structures and identity intact.

Christchurch can do this, but people ( who hold a monopoly of constructive services in Christchurch )neededlessly charge exhorbitant rates when they need not to and it annoys me that greed will cause many such efforts and recontruction projects to be disregarded in Christchurch.

The Lyttleton Time Ball Tower is a classic example. It could be completely rebuilt for less than $3 million NZD if you remove the greed factor.